As the current 2024 race for London heats up, polls suggest incumbent Mayor Sadiq Khan may face a closer-than-expected battle. Though he still leads, recent surveys show his margin is narrowing against the Conservative candidate, Susan Hall. If Khan wins this year, he will be eyeing a historic third term, but Londoners seem restless. In the words of Khan’s own campaign team, the new first-past-the-post system might just tilt the playing field enough to knock him off his perch.
The Tories' bench of potential candidates is quickly evolving, with Foreign Secretary James Cleverly keeping his own ambitions coyly under wraps. When pressed by the FT, he neither confirmed nor denied a possible run, fueling speculation that he may also be positioning himself for the 2028 race.
So, what’s at stake for the Tories? London, a city entrenched in Labour support, has long been a challenge. Khan has capitalized on a progressive agenda, highlighting his green initiatives, affordable housing goals, and new policies on public transit fares. But he faces backlash for expanding the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) to outer boroughs, a policy Susan Hall is already using as a rallying cry. Hall’s campaign promises Tougher policing and an end to the expanded Ulez, but recent missteps—like confusing New York City crime footage with London—have caused some to doubt her readiness.
With other candidates from smaller parties vying for attention, 2024's race will likely be a taste of what’s to come. As Khan braces for the fight of his political life, insiders wonder if his popularity could wane enough to give Mordaunt or Cleverly a real shot in 2028. Mordaunt’s allies insist she has the “X-factor” needed to capture The London electorate’s imagination, while Cleverly is playing a longer game.
Ultimately, the Tories have big decisions ahead. Will Mordaunt step into the limelight, or will Cleverly leverage his foreign policy experience to take on Khan’s legacy? London’s future, particularly in areas like affordable housing, Metropolitan Police reform, and TfL funding, hangs in the balance. Both Mordaunt and Cleverly could be game-changers if they decide to throw their hats in The ring.